The 2015 presidential elections: what exactly awaits Nigeria?

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The 2015 election: What should Nigerians expect?

As the year 2014 came to an end last week, Nigerians were quick to say goodbye to what had, for so many, been a not-so-fantastic year.

The arrival of the new year, 2015, plenty people hope, will herald unprecedented positive changes in so many areas of their lives.

The lack of nostalgia for last year was as much felt personally for most people as it was nationally.

Personal woes aside, 2014 served up what was at best a dish of unimaginable national horrors, which left a lot of Nigerians wondering where exactly the country was headed.

Besides the regular feast of bomb explosions, perhaps the most shocking disaster – even to the international community – was the April 14 abduction of over 200 secondary school girls in Chibok town, north-eastern Nigeria by Boko Haram.

The global whirlwind the abduction generated – and still generates though to a far reduced extent right now – coupled with the Presidency’s inability to rescue the girls nine months on, chopped off a huge segment of the President’s integrity in the eyes of so many Nigerians.

Even the President’s incapability to effectively tackle terrorism across the country, which has resulted in countless deaths and displacements in the North-East, means the masses are not so confident in their leader anymore.

The political opposition, APC, like expected, has successfully milked the situation to discredit the present government and present their presidential candidate as the God-sent Gen Muhammadu Buhari (rtd), who has countlessly promised to deliver the nation from its present terrors, if elected.

However, this will be the fourth attempt of the 72-year-old former military head of state at the Presidency. And being a core Muslim with an overwhelming, if not fanatical, support in the North, his failure once again at the polls, especially when it happens against a backdrop of any perceived electoral malpractice, pundits predict, could trigger an avalanche of post-election violence that might pose serious questions for the unity of Nigeria.

Therefore, as the February 14 presidential election looms and the traditional mudslinging between the incumbent’s PDP and APC continues, one could not help but ponder how the rest of this new year could pan out.

With the polity now well overheated and even its smouldering embers fanned by very influential Nigerians, even priests now involved, the questions, therefore, couldn’t have been better posed: Could 2015 finally be the year where a radical change occurs up there at Aso Rock Villa, which, we hope, would trickle down to the masses; or would this new year witness another ugly episode in the chequered history of our country right after the elections?

Be that as it may, fact is: Nigeria today needs a dramatic turn-around in fortunes. The crash in oil prices, the naira devaluation, the unabating terrorism, etc. call for a total re-evaluation, if not overhaul, of the current hierarchy. However, doubts remain whether the opposition are capable of effecting the much-needed transformation, should they be voted into power.

President Jonathan has not done very badly, in my opinion, but the continuing downward trend in fortunes, which, sadly, has been used by his detractors to criticise his government, means he probably may not have a second chance to fix the nation.

Regardless of all the huffing and puffing by the APC, I still expect the President to win re-election for a second term; but, just like other millions of Nigerians, I hope he gets it right this time – should he win.

This does not mean it would be a landslide victory for the PDP. As a matter of fact, even with the hugely significant regional political affiliations, I expect a keen contest.

But, like all other Nigerians, I hope and pray that, regardless of whatever shenanigans that might be at work, the post-election period does not push the country further towards the precipice.

Otherwise this new year could turn out to be a lot worse than the previous one.

Now that is what nobody wants, at least not me!

(First published: 6 January 2015)

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